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The Story Behind the Weather - By Forecaster John Ensworth M.S. - 

The Discussion of Weather Events Daily for Philadelphia and Pennsylvania

 Last updated: 02/06/2004 02:10 PM
 

Good Afternoon Philadelphia!   

    I'm glad to announce that these discussions will continue until at least the end of February (it's a short month)! 
    I have the necessary server space (especially with missed days!).  

In short: Rain will continue to fall into the evening followed by cool and dry weather through the start of next week.  

In the Long:  I'll stay in "active weather" mode today with the continued Flood Watch Statement from the National Weather Service below... 

Flood Watch / Flood Statement

Expires 10:45 PM EST on February 06, 2004   Statement as of 11:44 am EST on February 6, 2004...Urban And Small Stream Flood Advisory Issued... The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued an urban and small stream flood advisory effective until 600 PM EST Friday evening for people in the following counties... In northern Delaware      northern New Castle In southeast Pennsylvania      Delaware... northern Philadelphia... Chester... Montgomery and      southwestern Bucks At 1137 am EST weather service Doppler radar indicated very heavy  rain. Small stream throughout the area are rising.   Excessive runoff from this storm will cause flooding of small creeks and streams... highways and underpasses. Additionally... country roads and Farmlands along the banks of creeks and streams and other low lying areas are subject to flooding. Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Vehicles caught in rising water should be abandoned quickly. Move to higher ground.

The big story with this system is the amount of water in it and the temperatures (warm air can transport more moisture than cold air).  The temperatures over the region are already in the upper 30'sF and lower 40'sF. 

The winter coded radar view shows the snow (and air cold enough to make snow) has moved far to the north almost off this map. We just have moderate rain over the southeast third of the state. 

Nationally, the amounts of rain that have fall in just the last 24 hours top 6" down in Alabama and Tennessee. Wow!

Locally, Philadelphia has seen about an inch city wide, but that is erasing (and has erased) all the snow.  To the west and north, rapid snow melt and heavier rain is leading to the flooding being seen out there. 

And the front itself (a occluded front where the cold front, which moves about twice as fast as the warm front) has caught up with the warm front.  That is marked as a purple line with both the triangles of a cold front and the bumps of a warm front alternating. The really warm air is further south! 

Note in this map and the winter radar above the change to ice/rain/snow over the higher (and colder) elevations of the Appalachians.  That is not coming towards us, it is a land form effect. 

So 24 hours or so ago, we had a trace of snow left here and there, but it's gone now. 

Into the future!  Friday 7pm (just after rush hour) the rain is still falling and falling. 

Saturday 1am and the rain keeps coming, but a change is visible to our west.  Colder and drier air is approaching. 

By 7am, the rain will be reduced to drizzle and snow will be coming down lightly in the highlands and mountains to our west and north. 

And, as the storm looses its grip on the east coast, we may see some snow flurries midday Saturday.

By 1pm Saturday, the surface map shows the Low off east of Maine carrying the bulk of precipitation with it. A secondary trough drifting out of Canadsa is kicking off the light snow out west. 

By Sunday 7am, we are in the dry (if not in the clear) and a bit of activity is possible to the distant southwest of the state, nothing to worry about in Philadelphia. 

Keep that umbrella well water-proofed and stay dry!

Meteorologist  John Ensworth

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