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The Story Behind the Weather - By Forecaster John Ensworth M.S. - 

The Discussion of Weather Events Daily for Philadelphia and Pennsylvania

 Last updated: 12/13/2003 10:27 AM
 

Good Morning Philadelphia!   

    I'm glad to announce that these discussions will continue until at least the end of this Year!. 
    I have the necessary server space.

In short:  Skies are starting out cold and clear, but clouds are on the increase from the west as the next storm system moves in putting us on the Rain/Snow/Ice line Sunday into Monday 

 In long: The Great snow pack we had last weekend is ... Gone.  sniff sniff   There still is a bit of snow way out west, but nothing to get excited about here. So lets see if we can get some replacement snow for Christmas. 

Our next storm is forming down on the Gulf Coast (pulling lots of tropical moisture up into itself).  A swath of snow is hitting Missouri this morning. 

The visible satellite view shows some snow on the ground up in New York Sate and the higher spots in the NW and western parts of Pennsylvania, but nothing over Philadelphia.  Wispy clouds are moving in from the southwest...

Those wispy clouds moving in from the southwest look more substantial in the Infrared Satellite image showing the temperatures of whatever the satellite is seeing from above.  They are very high cold icy clouds so they are colored blue (the warm Atlantic, on the other hand, is colored red). 

The approach of our next storm is prompting the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch for the highlands to our immediate west and northwest. Why?  We'll see below...

Sunday morning, 1am, the surface map shows the low approaching north Florida and kicking up a large shield of rain (green), snow (blue) and an icy mix (pink) ahead of it. 

So as that approaches, we may start out with a brief period of light to moderate snow early tomorrow morning. 

Then a new low forms just off the east coast and the storm intensifies...

Up close, we are on the triple point between where the snow is falling (in the Winter Storm Watch area), where ice is falling (inland to our south) and rain - along the coast. Which will we get?  It may change by the hour. 

By 7pm Sunday the storm has matured nicely to our immediate south with heavy rains near the low and snows inland to our west.  A strong onshore wind will kick up again raking us with bitter wind chills and wind driven rain/ice/snow. 

The Weather Service is forecasting snow/rain mix in the city by Sunday night. 

For Monday, 1am, we are STILL on the rain/snow line.  We could get either or both. 

By 1pm, Monday, the system is moving off to our northeast...

And it should end as it began with light snow mid-day Monday (or ending late morning). 

Then wraparound winds kick off more Lake Effect snow/rain to our west... for Monday night, 7pm.

But nothing should be falling near Philadelphia by Monday night. 

A 'just for fun' bonus today is a glimpse at what the GFS (one of our long range computer models) see's for SNOW ON THE GROUND for Christmas Morning (this is from the pro side of the www.accuweather.com site... I recommend you subscribe to that site for GREAT weather and graphics). 

Sadly, we look completely snow free for Christmas this year... but don't despair. It's only a model.

Buckle down and brace yourself for some blowing cold rain and ice/snow mix. 

And I'll be back here on the other side of the weekend, Monday morning!

Meteorologist  John Ensworth

Surface Station sky cover color key: