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The Story Behind the Weather - By Forecaster John Ensworth M.S. - 

The Discussion of Weather Events Daily for Philadelphia and Pennsylvania

 Last updated: 12/06/2003 08:05 AM
 

Good Morning Philadelphia!   

    I'm glad to announce that these discussions will continue until at least the end of this Year!. 
    I have the necessary server space.

In short:  Everything wintry and nasty is hitting and will continue to hit Philadelphia through Sunday morning. You have a Winter Storm Warning for the city for the next 24 hours and could see nearly a foot of snow  in places in or near the city. 
This is STILL a dangerous winter weather situation.  Watch the watches and warnings that will be issued via radio and TV. 

 In long: I'll start, again, today with the words of the National Weather Service.  Snow is falling and is going to continue to fall.  We are under a winter storm warning. 

...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY... 

SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...

WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS LATE TODAY...AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND...AND NORTHERN DELAWARE. AN ADDITIONAL THREE TO FIVE INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...AND AN ADDITIONAL THREE TO SIX INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WILL GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE DIRECTION TO THE NORTH DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED. DRIVING AND WALKING CONDITIONS ARE TREACHEROUS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. TRAVEL ON AREA ROADWAYS IS DISCOURAGED FOR SAFETY REASONS...AND TO GIVE ROADCREWS AN OPPORTUNITY TO PLOW AND TREAT OUR HIGHWAYS. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER EVENT. ANY TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU LEAVE THE SAFETY OF BEING INDOORS, YOU ARE PUTTING YOUR LIFE AT RISK.

The first low is sitting off the coast and the second low is in place (but a bit further north than expected yesterday, this will make the snow lag a bit into Sunday from yesterday's forecast). 

The color coded radar shows the snow continuing to move in from the Northeast with snow down to the coast.  And snow amounts are piling up to about 4-6" in many places with much of a day to go. 

The winds are fairly strong from the northeast (a Nor'easter) and are stronger closer to the coastal Low pressure system.  Nasty nasty weather. 

Snow amounts by Thursday night 7pm shows the very earliest snow amounts as they began to add up. There is a 1.5 day delay in the production of these maps, so you won't get to see the real totals here until Monday morning (aftermath!). 

The visible satellite image at 8am(ish) shows the thick blanket of bumpy (convective) clouds with an interesting swirl to our southeast over the sea. That is the circulation around the Low visible to the eye!

The national weather service forecast shows, by 7am today, snow snow snow. 

Then by 1pm... well...more snow. 

For 7pm tonight, the heaviest snow begins to pull out quite quickly...

Then by 1am Sunday, the heavy snow should be gone, but the north winds will blast away with cold air pouring into the city from the north. 

For Sunday 7am, you  might see some light flurries, but the heavy snow will be over. 

The BAD news is what happens AFTER this snow is here.   By Tuesday you should see strong south winds return with heat and moisture.  Then the next system seems bent on staying west of the Appalachians.  This will bring a lot of RAIN to the area and a very rapid snow melt.  Watch for flooding in the mountains. 

By Wednesday night 7pm, the heavy rain/thunderstorms are pounding the east coast wiping out most if not all the snow. 

When it snows, it pours.  Sorry about that.  

Stay warm and dry and I'll see you again Monday morning for the debreifing from this storm and the prep for the next.

Meteorologist  John Ensworth

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