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The Story Behind the Weather - By Forecaster John
Ensworth M.S. -
The Discussion of Weather Events Daily for Philadelphia and Pennsylvania
Last updated: 01/08/2004 09:17 AM
Good Afternoon Philadelphia!
I'm glad to announce that these
discussions will continue until at least the end of January!
I
have the necessary server space (especially with missed days!).
In short: The thicker clouds are moving in and rain. The temperatures are still VERY unusually warm, but a cool down is on the way.
In long: The visible satellite view shows these clouds (with some clearing over us...but the warm air is very moist so we have a lot of haze around.
The surface map shows the complex surface features tonight. The warm air is pushing to the northeast ahead of the next cold front. The Appalachian Mountains are blocking the flow temporarily so you can see the northeast moving warm front wrapping around them and approaching us from both the west and the south.
With temperatures in the 50's (incredible!!!) everything for 100's of miles around us is falling in the form of rain. You can see the rain associated with this warm front spreading in from the west at present. Rain tonight for us!
Nationally, behind that cold front moving out of the plains, you can see the freezing and sub-freezing air mass roaring in. Look at the HIGHS in Montana and N. Dakota at -15F!!! Good gosh.
So here comes the cold. Saturday's highs will be very warm still with the warm front finally passing... 60's in Philadelphia!
Then by Sunday morning, the cold front sweeps through bringing in more rain.
Sunday's highs sink with the rain and cooler air coming in, we drop back to the upper 50's.
Then the low in the system passes Monday morning and the real cold air starts to invade (see the snow beginning out in western Pennsylvania. As strong brutally cold west winds increase Monday and onward, look for a MAJOR return of the Lake Effect snows.
Tuesday's highs plunge (and I mean drop, fall, plummet, roar downward) to only the mid 30's for Philadelphia.
Wednesday's highs show the slam of cold air even stronger... we don't rise out of the 20's on Wednesday and New York state plunges into the mid teens as High Temperatures!
Thursday sees no change in the brutal cold - mid 20's for highs will HURT after this last few weeks.
We'll also see a chance of snow flurries Tuesday late into Wednesday with the reinforcing shot of cold air and powerful lake effect snows out west. Keep the warm woolies handy.
I'll be leaving the Arizona mountains Monday and driving for about three days, so don't look for another forecast discussion until I'm back home Wednesday. I can't wait to join you in the cold. (Yuck.)
From the High Desert in the Great American Southwest... I'll catch ya later!
Meteorologist John Ensworth
Surface Station sky cover color key:
Flight category definitions:| Category | Ceiling | Visibility | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low Instrument Flight Rules LIFR* (magenta circle |
below 500 feet AGL | and/or | less than 1 mile |
| Instrument Flight Rules IFR (red circle) |
500 to below 1,000 feet AGL | and/or | 1 mile to less than 3 miles |
| Marginal Visual Flight Rules MVFR (blue circle) |
1,000 to 3,000 feet AGL | and/or | 3 to 5 miles |
| Visual Flight Rules VFR+ (green circle) |
greater than 3,000 feet AGL | and | greater than 5 miles |
| *By definition, IFR is ceiling less than 1,000 feet
AGL and/or visibility less than 3 miles while LIFR
is a sub-category of IFR. +By definition, VFR is ceiling greater than or equal to 1,000 feet AGL and visibility greater than or equal to 3 miles while MVFR is a sub-category of VFR. |
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