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The Story Behind the Weather - By Forecaster John
Ensworth M.S. -
The Discussion of Weather Events Daily for Philadelphia and Pennsylvania
Last updated: 09/18/2003 09:09 AM
Good Morning Philadelphia!
Here is a QUICK update this morning (I'll dig in more with a special second update this afternoon/evening).
THE QUICK AND DIRTY OF IT: The maximum winds associated with Isabel in the Philadelphia area should hit this evening around 7pm to 10pm. You should see sustained winds around 34-40mph which can toss light lawn furniture and trashcans around. You will see gusts around 50-60mph tonight.
Philadelphia should see 2-4 inches of rain with MUCH higher amounts to our west 50miles and more distant. Rainfall should become heavy in just a few hours. On and off (mostly on) heavy rain will continue until about noon/3pm Friday.
The storm DID make landfall further south and did NOT go up the Chesapeake Bay. We have been spared the worst of it.
The radar view this morning shows the first rain band just now dropping sprinkles on the city. You can see the center of circulation/eye near Cape Hatteras.
The front right side of the hurricane is the most likely location for tornadoes, so the NWS has issued a tornado. This is also south of us.
The path is expected to be up into central/ west central PA.
We are now (finally) out of the error window for the future track of the system. Note, winds are now at 100mph. It is still a strong storm!
The region around the center being effected by hurricane force winds has shrunk as the storm has weakened some.
The region of the coast that will be struck is pretty clear now, it is the outer banks of NC.
The computer models are all in agreement about the future track of the system EXCEPT the BAM Medium range model that seems to have it in for Philadelphia. It likes to curve it to the east and spook us.
We've dodged a potentially bad storm, now we just need to get rid of all the rainfall that will fall across central Pennsylvania.
I'll be back this afternoon for more! See ya then.
Meteorologist John Ensworth
Surface Station sky cover color key:
Flight category definitions:| Category | Ceiling | Visibility | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low Instrument Flight Rules LIFR* (magenta circle) |
below 500 feet AGL | and/or | less than 1 mile |
| Instrument Flight Rules IFR (red circle) |
500 to below 1,000 feet AGL | and/or | 1 mile to less than 3 miles |
| Marginal Visual Flight Rules MVFR (blue circle) |
1,000 to 3,000 feet AGL | and/or | 3 to 5 miles |
| Visual Flight Rules VFR+ (green circle) |
greater than 3,000 feet AGL | and | greater than 5 miles |
| *By definition, IFR is ceiling less than 1,000 feet
AGL and/or visibility less than 3 miles while LIFR
is a sub-category of IFR. +By definition, VFR is ceiling greater than or equal to 1,000 feet AGL and visibility greater than or equal to 3 miles while MVFR is a sub-category of VFR. |
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